Former Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said this week that both a united Ireland and an independent Scotland are likely to be achieved within the next two decades. She made the prediction during an appearance at the Féile an Phobail festival in west Belfast.

Sturgeon also indicated that Irish unification may now occur ahead of Scottish independence, a reversal of her earlier assessment. She did not set out a precise timeline but placed both events in a 20-year horizon.

She explained how her own political path led her to nationalism, describing a childhood in a Church of Scotland and Labour-supporting home. She said the repeated imposition of Conservative governments on Scotland, despite the country voting against them, created a democratic deficit that drove her toward the SNP.

The former first minister said the Brexit process gave her a new understanding of why many unionists fear Scottish independence. Losing her European identity against her democratic wishes allowed her to appreciate the attachment others have to their British identity, she said.

On the question of Irish unity, Sturgeon suggested that significant resistance may emerge from the Republic of Ireland rather than from within Northern Ireland. She did not elaborate, but noted the need for a thorough public debate.

She argued that any movement toward constitutional change must be backed by detailed proposals. She recalled that ahead of Scotland’s 2014 independence referendum, her government published a comprehensive white paper addressing issues including currency, pensions, and international representation. She expressed the view that a similar approach is necessary in the Irish context.