Northern Ireland's schools confront a demographic crisis with primary enrolment forecast to fall 20.5% and secondary 9.5% by 2033. A Stormont Department of Education budget strategy projects 40% of schools will become unviable by then, up from 25% now. Enrolment trends have worsened since the projections used three-year-old data.

One in five desks in classrooms across Northern Ireland stands empty. This vacancy rate doubled in the first decade of devolution and persists at that level.

A 2024 Ulster University paper identifies 25 communities, mostly rural west of the Bann, each served by a Catholic primary and a state primary below viability thresholds. Two communities have secondary schools in similar positions. An additional 41 pairs of primaries remain viable for now.

Paul Givan, DUP education minister, supports a 2023 independent review recommending jointly-managed community schools. These would combine Catholic, state and other governors to run one school per site while preserving separate ethoses. The review calls for a commission to establish 177 such schools by 2031, serving one-fifth of pupils.

Givan seeks a stronger independent commission to create a five-year plan for rationalising the schools estate. He aims for evidence-based decisions to handle school closures politicians have avoided.