Voters in the English constituency of Makerfield go to the polls today in a by-election that could have far-reaching consequences for Northern Ireland. Labour’s Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, faces Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon in a race that opinion polls show is tightening.

Burnham has described the vote as a chance for change, while cautioning that a Reform win could lead to a more divided politics.

Reform, led by Nigel Farage, advances policies that directly affect Northern Ireland. The party supports equal public spending per head across the four UK nations, a principle that would mean significant cuts to Northern Ireland, which currently receives higher per-capita funding than England.

The party also proposes withdrawing the United Kingdom from the European Convention on Human Rights. The Convention is a cornerstone of the 1998 Belfast Agreement, the peace accord that ended decades of conflict in Northern Ireland.

Reform includes some of the most hardline Brexit advocates, raising concerns that a Reform government could undermine the Windsor Framework, the post-Brexit trade deal designed to avoid a hard Irish border.

Farage has maintained close political ties with the Democratic Unionist Party and the Traditional Unionist Voice, yet he has also predicted Irish unification. A Reform administration would intensify calls for a border poll from nationalist communities.

The devolved nations of Scotland and Wales face similar pressures from Reform’s agenda, potentially accelerating centrifugal forces within the United Kingdom.

As counting gets under way in Makerfield, officials in Belfast and Dublin are watching closely for a result that could reshape the constitutional debate.