Northern Ireland households saw a short-lived improvement in spending power during the second quarter of 2026, helped by a drop in oil prices, but the relief is expected to fade.

Data compiled by Cebr for Asda showed the region’s Income Tracker, a measure of discretionary income after taxes and essentials, rose by 6.4% year-on-year in the three months to June. That was an acceleration from 3% growth in the first quarter.

Gross earnings in Northern Ireland increased by 3.8% year-on-year in the second quarter, the second-fastest growth rate among UK regions, behind only the East of England. Average weekly discretionary income in the region reached £137, an improvement of £8.22 compared with a year earlier, though it fell by £3.38 on the previous quarter.

Despite the rise, Northern Ireland remains the weakest-performing UK region on this measure. Its discretionary income is £27.42 per week below the North East of England, the next lowest region. London households had the highest discretionary income, averaging £337 per week.

The report linked the temporary lift to a sharp monthly decline in liquid fuel costs, which eased pressure on household budgets in June. It cautioned that the softening of oil prices and inflation may provide only a temporary lull while Middle East tensions persist.

Sam Miley, head of forecasting and thought leadership at Cebr, said significant headwinds remain. He noted that renewed hostilities in the Middle East are pushing oil prices up again, and given Northern Ireland’s disproportionate reliance on heating oil, the impact on households could be acute as autumn approaches. He warned that the Tracker’s recent momentum could stall and purchasing power may contract in the second half of 2026.

A cooling labour market is also expected to curb pay growth and workers’ bargaining power, adding further pressure on budgets.