Northern Ireland is on track to surpass one million workforce jobs by 2032, according to projections from Ulster University's Economic Policy Centre (UUEPC).

The centre has upgraded its 2026 growth forecast for the local economy to 1.6 percent, up from a previous estimate of 1.3 percent, while downgrading the UK forecast from 1.4 percent to 1 percent. It expects Northern Ireland to grow slightly above the UK average out to 2030.

Between the first quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, Northern Ireland recorded the fastest annual workforce jobs growth of any UK region. Employment fell in nine of the 12 UK regions over the same period. Todd Gowdy, an assistant economist at UUEPC, said strong employment growth has been a key driver of economic performance.

Private services, including wholesale and retail, have been the main source of job creation. Construction entered 2026 with solid momentum and is expected to benefit from major infrastructure projects and City and Growth Deal schemes. Manufacturing employment is forecast to add 4,000 jobs between 2025 and 2035, a slower pace than the 11,000 added in the previous decade.

The outlook acknowledges heightened uncertainty due to the conflict in the Persian Gulf. The forecast was completed before a recent escalation that pushed energy prices sharply higher, which could quickly alter expectations for inflation and interest rates.

Research accompanying the forecast highlights that productivity growth tends to reallocate jobs across the economy rather than causing widespread job losses. Myles Patton, principal economist, stressed the importance of skills development and workforce adaptability as technologies such as artificial intelligence advance.

A separate study within the report estimates that high turnover among child and family care social workers cost £7.13 million in Northern Ireland in 2024/25. A 20 percent reduction in turnover could save around £1.43 million, enough to fund approximately 42 additional social workers at Band 5/6. Gillian Martin, senior economist, said workforce retention carries direct implications for public finances and service delivery.

The report also warns that demographic change will reshape demand for public services. An ageing population is expected to increase pressure on health and social care, while fewer children and young people will affect education, requiring long-term workforce planning.

Separate official labour market data for June showed payroll employee numbers unchanged from May at 820,800, though up 1.4 percent over the year. Median monthly pay rose by 4.9 percent annually to £2,480. The unemployment rate, based on the Labour Force Survey, stood at 1.8 percent, down 0.4 percentage points over the quarter. The claimant count fell by 1.8 percent on the month to 33,800. Confirmed redundancies totalled 1,670 in the year to June, over 23 percent lower than the previous year.