Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald has introduced a private member’s bill in the Dáil that would compel the taoiseach to produce an economic study on Northern Ireland’s incorporation into the Republic and to convene a Citizens’ Assembly on the issue. During the bill’s presentation she said the idea of a border poll “is not going away, you know”, a phrase mirroring former Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams’s 1995 remark about the IRA.

Unionist representatives criticised the comment. DUP MLA Brian Kingston stated that using language which evokes the IRA signals what Sinn Féin has in mind for unionists in a so-called new Ireland. UUP leader Jon Burrows called it disappointing but unsurprising and said it is best ignored. TUV candidate Mel Lucas argued the remark exposes the pretence of an agreed Ireland and will reinforce opposition to ending the union.

The focus on constitutional change coincides with upheaval inside the DUP following the conviction of ex-leader Jeffrey Donaldson for child abuse. TUV leader Jim Allister asserted that British authorities must have known of Donaldson’s “proclivities” and may have used them to secure his acceptance of the post-Brexit Irish Sea border. UUP leader Mr Burrows has written to the UK prime minister requesting an independent inquiry to establish what information police, security agencies, government departments and parties held.

Council and Assembly elections will be held simultaneously next May, the first such coincidence since 2011. The DUP holds 21 percent of Assembly seats, one fewer than Sinn Féin. An opinion poll taken before the conviction put the party at 18 percent, a level it had been recording since Donaldson’s arrest.

The DUP had been seeking cooperation with other unionist parties to improve its electoral position, but the scandal has weakened that effort. The UUP and TUV are now pressing questions about the knowledge of senior DUP figures, creating pressure on the party from both flanks.

Unionism overall is only two seats ahead of nationalism at Stormont. A further drop in DUP support, even if distributed among other unionist parties, could leave nationalism as the largest designation. Such an outcome would bolster nationalist calls for a border poll, a prospect the DUP is likely to raise when mobilising voters.