Two independent research papers examining the consequences of recent US trade policy changes on Northern Ireland have been published by the Department for the Economy.

The first, a macroeconomic assessment from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), modelled the effects of various tariff scenarios on GDP, trade, employment, consumption, wages and inflation between 2025 and 2030.

It found that higher tariffs would lead to reduced trade volumes, a short-term rise in inflation, and lower economic output and consumption over time.

The second ESRI paper focused on trade patterns and concluded that US tariffs introduced since 2025 are expected to have a significant long-term impact on trade between Northern Ireland and the United States.

The largest estimated drops in exports are in chemicals and transport equipment manufacturing, excluding motor vehicles. The manufacturing of electrical machinery is forecast to see the greatest fall in imports.

Trade with Britain, Ireland and other EU countries could increase slightly as patterns adjust, the research indicated.

Both reports noted that Northern Ireland’s dual-market access under the Windsor Framework may offer some resilience and opportunities from shifts in global trade, but these are unlikely to offset the broader economic costs of higher trade barriers.

Economy Minister Caoimhe Archibald described the new US tariffs as an unwelcome development for the global economy that creates uncertainty for businesses, investors and consumers.

She said the findings confirm increased trade barriers are likely to harm economic growth, trade and employment, and stressed that as a small, open economy with strong links to both Britain and the EU, Northern Ireland is especially sensitive to changes in the global trading environment.

The Minister added that her priority remains supporting businesses, strengthening exports, attracting investment, and using the evidence to shape the local response.