Northern Ireland's milk production has begun to decline following a record-breaking 2025/26 season, yet overall supplies remain historically elevated, keeping farmgate prices under pressure.

Data from AHDB shows GB milk deliveries fell year-on-year in April, May and June 2026, by 0.1%, 0.9% and 3.1% respectively. Northern Ireland producers face similar headwinds, including lower milk prices, volume management schemes introduced by some processors, and extended hot, dry weather.

The AHDB forecasts total GB milk output for the 2026/27 season at 12.91 billion litres, a 0.9% decline on the previous year. This points to a gradual correction rather than a sharp contraction.

In the Republic of Ireland, milk deliveries were 3.4% lower in April and 1.5% lower in May compared with a year earlier. However, production from January to May remained only 0.6% below the same period in 2025 and was still almost 7% above 2024 levels.

The easing in volumes reflects lower profitability after milk price cuts late in 2025, while below-average rainfall restricted grass growth in Ireland's pasture-based systems.

Despite the recent slowdown, ample milk remains in the supply chain. The European Commission expects EU milk output to grow this year, and global supplies meet current demand. Analysts say any meaningful recovery in dairy prices will require further production drops or a significant uptick in demand.

For Northern Ireland's dairy farmers, the near-term outlook points to continued price pressure as the market works through abundant stocks.